Data, Data Everywhere and Not An Expert in Sight

If you've built a few simulations, its a good bet that you've been through projects where you just didn't have access to all the data the textbooks said you should have. In such cases, the enterprising simulationist is usually left with no choice but to deal with this situation by interviewing appropriate subject matter experts (SMEs) and making what amount to expert guesses.

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Modeling Variability

A recent project highlighted a different way of needing to look at variability.  The normal practise of gather, analysing and entering process times into SIMUL8 just did not work. The normal method would be:

1. Collect data into a spreadsheet.
2. Manipulate the data if necessary to get it into the form of minutes per piece.
3. Paste the data into your favorite statistical software to identify the distribution which best represents the variability of your system.
4. Enter the resulting distribution into SIMUL8 as a work center's operation time.

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Gathering and Preparing a Data Set

Use the right tools. Data analysis software has come a long way in recent years. If you haven't researched what's available lately, you might be surprised at how much power you can get for relatively low cost. At a bare minimum, you should invest in a tool to help with distribution fitting. SIMUL8 has recently introduced the Stat:Fit plug-in. We think that ExpertFit is another excellent choice. Excel is good for some simple tabulation, but there is a wide array of techniques out there that are invaluable for exploratory data analysis. If you are working on projects involving data sets of any substantial size or complexity, you will appreciate the features of a complete statistical analysis package. There are many choices available on the market. For full-fledged data analyses, we use Statistica, from StatSoft, because it offers an impressive array of features at a very reasonable price. The right choice for you will depend upon your needs, background and budget.

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